Piyasa Profesyonelleri Anketi: Dolarizasyonun İlk Sinyalleri – Paraanaliz İncelemesi
Para-banka-finans
Piyasa Profesyonelleri Anketi: Dolarizasyonun ilk sinyalleri olabilir mi?
Spinn Danışmanlık tarafından düzenlenen ve Aralık ayında 114 piyasa profesyonelinin katıldığı Piyasa Profesyonelleri Anketi’nin (PPA) sonuçlarına göre 2025’in en büyük 3 riski tarifeler, yurtiçi enflasyon ve Avrupa’da resesyon riski.
Economic analysts are buzzing with the latest findings from the Market Professionals Survey conducted by Spinn Consultancy in December, where 114 market professionals participated. The results shed light on the top three risks for 2025 – tariffs, domestic inflation, and the risk of recession in Europe. While stock and deposits remain popular in portfolio preferences, market professionals may be gearing up to increase their positions in foreign exchange.
Piyasa Profesyonelleri Anketi Sonuçları ve Analizi
Following a surge in November, the BIST100 index slowed down in December, displaying a volatile trend. Recommendations to increase weight on the BIST100 index in December were prevalent, with more professionals turning neutral. While 70.3% of market professionals advised increasing stock positions in November, this percentage slightly decreased to 68.4% in December. Conversely, the recommendation to stay neutral rose from 13.2% to 17.5%.
In the realm of TL deposits, the recommendation to stay neutral, ongoing for the past five months, continued in December. However, the percentage of those recommending neutrality dropped significantly from 63.7% to 50.9%. Recommendations to decrease weight surged from 14.3% to 28.1%.
Portföy Dağılımı ve Eğilimler
For both short and long-term domestic borrowing instruments, recommendations to increase weight continued to rise slightly. The percentage of recommendations to increase weight on short-term borrowing instruments rose from 56.0% to 56.1%, and for long-term borrowing instruments, it increased from 46.1% to 49.1%.
While neutral recommendations persisted for gold, eurobonds, and foreign stocks, the neutral recommendation for eurobonds entered its 17th month. Regarding the spot USDTRY, 64.9% of professionals recommended staying neutral, while the percentage recommending weight reduction dropped from 20.9% to 14.0%, and those suggesting an increase rose from 8.8% to 12.3%. The shift in recommendations for DTHs, dropping from 59.3% to 51.7% for neutrality and increasing from 1.1% to 8.8% for weight gain, hints at the first signs of a shift towards foreign exchange, possibly due to interest rate cuts.
Portföy Dağılımı Analizi ve Öngörüler
As per the responses to the portfolio distribution question in the Market Professionals Survey, domestic stocks maintained their position as the most significant asset class in most portfolios, even though their weight decreased slightly from 35.0% to 34.5%. The percentage of TL deposits increased by 3.85 points to 21.8 from the previous month. Short-term borrowing instruments decreased by 2.3 points to 9.6%, while long-term borrowing instruments increased by 0.2 points to 7.2%. The share of USDTRY, the fourth asset class with increasing weight, rose by 0.5 points to 5.5%. While making decisions based on one-month results can be tricky, the slight increase in USDTRY’s weight in portfolios indicates a potential acceleration in the shift towards foreign exchange in the coming period.
This comprehensive analysis of the Market Professionals Survey results offers a glimpse into the evolving trends and sentiments within the financial markets, providing valuable insights for investors navigating the ever-changing landscape of the global economy. Stay tuned for more updates on market dynamics and expert predictions for the year ahead.